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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.