A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
